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grin
themabbi
Wow...Howard Dean is broke. Last anyone knew, Dean for America was up to their eyeballs in cash, something like 40 million. Turns out they blew their whole wad on Iowa and NH, airing ads that by all accounts were terrible. As a result, Dean can't afford to buy any air-time in any of the Feb 3rd states. Ouch...winning a couple of those would have let him stay right up there with Kerry through February. Dean is far from out of the race, but he'll continue to hemorrhage support if he doesn't get one in the W column pretty soon here.

Just about everyone's predictions have been wildly inaccurate so far, but here goes:

Kerry: Win in Delaware and Missouri. He'll remain on top through February.

Dean: He's the most up in the air right now. He's got a good shot at New Mexico, but with no money Kerry or Clark could snatch it away. If he can score some big wins like Michigan and Wisconsin, he can be right up there with Kerry going into March. If not, it's do or die on Super Tuesday.

Clark: Win in Arizona and Oklahoma. With Dean broke he's got the most money now, but Kerry is going to be bringing in more. If Dean continues to tank in February, Clark has a good shot at a two man race with Kerry. If Dean hangs on, then Clark has to beat him on Super Tuesday, or start bucking for a cabinet position (like Sec. State).

Edwards: Win in South Carolina. After that, I think he's probably on his way out. His strength is going to be in the South, so he might be able to win Virginia or Tennessee on the 10th, but I think he'll slowly fade over the course of the month. But who knows, he came out of nowhere in Iowa. Plus that strength in the South makes him an attractive choice for VP.

Lieberman should just avoid the embarrassment and get out now. If he can't win in NH he can't win anywhere.

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BUT LIEBERMAN HAS JOEMENTUM!!!!!!!!!

It's not even the weekend and already my prediction for Arizona looks way off. Before last week Clark looked like he had it in the bag, but the latest polling shows Kerry completely owning Clark, to the tune of %38 to %17. Clark still looks solid in Oklahoma though.

Also, I didn't make a prediction for North Dakota because I hadn't seen any polling for it. Turns out nobody had, there hadn't been any polling done there. My gut sense was that it would be Kerry winning, with Clark second. First poll out of ND shows Kerry %31, Clark in second with %15.

More and more it looks like Dean won't win any Feb. 3 states. It's also looking like Kerry has Michigan pretty well wrapped up (he's got a double digit lead in the polls and is endorsed by the Governor). Dean is in trouble...if he doesn't win at least one big state in February he doesn't have a prayer on Super Tuesday. He'd better break out the kneepads in Washington and Wisconsin.

Why does the PRI keep saying that Kerry is the one who can beat Bush. What sets him apart from Dean?

As far as actual policy goes, there's really nothing that makes Kerry more likely to beat Bush. But Kerry is winning states. The logic is, if Dean can't win primaries, how can he win the whole election?

I think it's a little too soon to say that, since only Iowa and NH have gone so far. However, 7 more states vote on Tuesday, and unless something big happens between now and then, it looks like Kerry will win 4-5 of them, and Dean won't win any. It'll be hard for Dean to play the electability card when he's 0 for 9.

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