Ben Mabbott (themabbi) wrote,
Ben Mabbott

Wow...Howard Dean is broke. Last anyone knew, Dean for America was up to their eyeballs in cash, something like 40 million. Turns out they blew their whole wad on Iowa and NH, airing ads that by all accounts were terrible. As a result, Dean can't afford to buy any air-time in any of the Feb 3rd states. Ouch...winning a couple of those would have let him stay right up there with Kerry through February. Dean is far from out of the race, but he'll continue to hemorrhage support if he doesn't get one in the W column pretty soon here.

Just about everyone's predictions have been wildly inaccurate so far, but here goes:

Kerry: Win in Delaware and Missouri. He'll remain on top through February.

Dean: He's the most up in the air right now. He's got a good shot at New Mexico, but with no money Kerry or Clark could snatch it away. If he can score some big wins like Michigan and Wisconsin, he can be right up there with Kerry going into March. If not, it's do or die on Super Tuesday.

Clark: Win in Arizona and Oklahoma. With Dean broke he's got the most money now, but Kerry is going to be bringing in more. If Dean continues to tank in February, Clark has a good shot at a two man race with Kerry. If Dean hangs on, then Clark has to beat him on Super Tuesday, or start bucking for a cabinet position (like Sec. State).

Edwards: Win in South Carolina. After that, I think he's probably on his way out. His strength is going to be in the South, so he might be able to win Virginia or Tennessee on the 10th, but I think he'll slowly fade over the course of the month. But who knows, he came out of nowhere in Iowa. Plus that strength in the South makes him an attractive choice for VP.

Lieberman should just avoid the embarrassment and get out now. If he can't win in NH he can't win anywhere.
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